Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Westwind]

Couple quotes from a Forbes article…. I thought it was interesting.

===Presidents get a lot of credit and blame over rising and falling gasoline prices. In reality, there’s not a lot a president can do to impact gasoline prices in the short term. Longer term, a president can pass policies that impact supply and demand in such a way that they do impact gasoline prices. But in the short term, a president has relatively few handles for influencing gasoline prices.===

===This graphic shows the data, but it needs context. There are many stories that could be spun from a superficial reading of the data, but many of them would be wrong. For example, President Bush saw a huge rise in gasoline prices when he was in office. It would certainly be easy to cast blame on him for this, but President Bush was very pro-oil and gas development.===

Average Gasoline Prices Under The Past Four Presidents

Gasoline prices have been especially volatile over the past 20 years. Here is how prices evolved during each of the past four presidencies.

www.forbes.com

But then there’s this: Biden has been discouraging Ukraine from hitting Russian refinery and energy facilities. Russia is financing their war and wartime economy with energy sales. (Interesting fact: their new Defense Minister has never been in the military. He’s an economist.) If Russia can’t sell oil and gas, they can’t pay for a war. Remember, Russia is basically a gas station posing as a country. So back to Biden. He is doing this because it is an election year and gas prices matter. I am a believer in “doing the right thing”. The right thing to do is make Russian gas and oil facilities unusable. The right thing to do is to tell the Indian government to quit buying Russian oil and gas. Both result in higher gas prices for Americans. As I understand it, Biden is in this case affecting the price of gas. Or is at least trying to. I think it’s gutless and it enables our enemies.

Now that I said that, I’m going to refer back to the bold above- it needs context. I probably don’t have enough context to know why we do what we do. I doubt any of it is as simple as “We do this and that happens.” Nothing is simple.

 

[Angus 1895]

I think one must focus on fundamentals.

Growth , margin , lack of exhorbanent debt, and dividend/share buy back.

Plus my best bet is being lucky

I have been having really nice returns lately on several positions.

Odd, GSL, ZIM, GE, ET, Garmin ( thanks), wing stop, broad com, micron, TSC ( thanks)

 

[Westwind]

Just said on news that 49% of people are carrying a balance on their credit cards. Holy cats!

 

[Tree Spud]

^ Well stated Tree Spud. Like you I have seen raw material price spikes and swings in my times. I remember selling metals based on "price in effect at time of shipment." Many companies (large and small) have trouble controlling their supply costs.....and often must price forward on unknown commodity prices / costs. Plus you never know what the government might regulate or impose on your company at any given time. How do you plan forward in such an economy?

Foggy, I have to tell you it was a very difficult and tested our ability to survive. The Gov't schemes to control business and people had tons of disasters' consequences. Fauci should be hung in times square for his role of mis-information.

We were getting quotes that were only good for 1 day, or no price quote hold and price would be updated at time of order receipt. We were lucky to keep all our employees as my partner and I took no money out of the business for 7 months so we could make payroll. Really chafes me when people think that business', especially small business owners are all greedy.

To answer your question, we had to raise prices, but learned that many of our customers understood that and they were buying from other process equipment were under the issues. We started buying inventory in advances, pre-machining parts that were higher turnover so we could respond to energy requests, and to manage lead time, no more just in time. We doubled our carried inventory to have some control over costs and lead times. We started meeting with customers and explained the issues. For some customers they requested us build and store with the condition they waived hold backs and pay 100% of the invoice. Some customers actually came us requesting to buy 6-10 earlier than they needed the equipment and they would store. They also had spiraling costs and had to have some control over pricing and lead time because their costs and continued disruptive leads were creating havoc with their projects.

Our onsite start-up commissioning and operator training was not possible with covid restrictions, so we created and extensive series of online TEAMS training classes for commissioning, equipment up, trouble shooting, and miniatous programs. Rather than charging the customer for this, we offered for free. They were so successful we evolved the TEAMS virtual meeting to sales group and this had a significant impact on sales access to customers.

We invested heavy in product vides for the sales team for sales presentations and project development. Some customers who needed repair work and to rebuild their equipment spare parts, we developed training programs also. All of these efforts were extremely well received as there was no lead time to scheduling customer support.

One client, a big paper mill in Florida, had a critical piece of equipment go down on Thursday, He needed a service tech onsite no later that the following week. We asked if he gathered he gathered his maintenance and engineering the next day (Fri) morning we would be online virtually with their team. He jumped all over this and was surprised at the fast response. They could walk us through the equipment and we showed them how to dis-assemble, inspect, and re-build with their cell phone cameras. They team at the plant loved this, were able to identify the required spare parts needed, they ordered and we shipped the same day. Equipment was online, maintenance group felt more confident with us and our equipment, and they saved $6,000-$7,000 service technical visit, and the production line was up and running Sunday night.

We developed a plan that I refer too as disruptive innovation. We implemented strategies that exceeded customer expectations, something none of our competitors did. As we have a large international customer base, this approach was especially important due travel time distance & costs. We shifted the paradigm to overcome the covid/supply chain issues and benefitted us and our customers.

Sometimes when presented lemons you gotta figure out how to make lemonade.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

So Biden is going to implement tariffs on Chinese ev’s because they are too cheap. I’m confused though because ev’s are essential to reverse climate change so don’t the ends justify the means? Shouldn’t they be flooding our market with eco friendly vehicles by any means necessary? Or…are they needing the auto union vote and they figure the climate crazies will vote blue regardless?

 

[Angus 1895]

He needs the union vote.

 

[Foggy47]

So Biden is going to implement tariffs on Chinese ev’s because they are too cheap. I’m confused though because ev’s are essential to reverse climate change so don’t the ends justify the means? Shouldn’t they be flooding our market with eco friendly vehicles by any means necessary? Or…are they needing the auto union vote and they figure the climate crazies will vote blue regardless?

There are several new brands of Golf Carts that have come onto the USA market in the past few years. They are all assembled in the USA with parts made in China. The carts sell for about 1/2 of what the big brand names sell for currently. For about $7000 to $8000 you can buy a very well equipped Icon brand cart with good lithium batteries and lots of options on it. These are assembled at plants in AZ and many are being sold in our community there. I've heard pretty good reports on these carts. Wonder if the tariff proposed will extend to those?

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

There are several new brands of Golf Carts that have come onto the USA market in the past few years. They are all assembled in the USA with parts made in China. The carts sell for about 1/2 of what the big brand names sell for currently. For about $8000 you can buy a very well equipped Icon brand cart with good lithium batteries and lots of options on it. These are assembled at plants in AZ and many are being sold in our community there. I've heard pretty good reports on these carts. Wonder if the tariff proposed will extend to those?

Depends if the mafia bosses at the golf cart union are threatening to withhold votes for Biden until they get their palms greased.

 

[Tree Spud]

So Biden is going to implement tariffs on Chinese ev’s because they are too cheap. I’m confused though because ev’s are essential to reverse climate change so don’t the ends justify the means? Shouldn’t they be flooding our market with eco friendly vehicles by any means necessary? Or…are they needing the auto union vote and they figure the climate crazies will vote blue regardless?

Apparently analysis has shown the production of and EV vs a gas powered car requires 40% labor... that means union work force reduction. The Gov't is also subsiding purchases of EV's by price cuts $7k - $10k. EV's costs are prohibitive to many buyers as they can't afford a $80k-$90k car. Add in limited battery time and difficulties accessing charge stations. The green climate crazies are definitely pushing who are trying force this agenda, and never think through the consequences.

Now add the Chinese cheapo EV's will further stress americam EV mftrs because they are losing money on every sale they make. Because Biden has been bought by the Chinese, he has a real problem, you can't play both sides of the fence.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I'm glad you were able to do well during the tougher financial times but when it comes to the state of our economy, jobs, and who is or isn't responsible for our current status, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree there. Your mind can't be changed and neither can mine. Supposedly war is good for the economy but I'd rather not find out first hand I guess. Government officials shouldn't be allowed to own stocks in my opinion and I think if government officials had to actually fight in wars like real soldiers we probably wouldn't see any more wars. jmo

I agree with you 100% on elected officials owning stock. Too easy to get inside info / possibly manipulate stocks by passing or shooting down bills that effect companies. I also agree with you that if the suits that start wars had to get on the front lines themselves & face bullets, mortars, missiles, IED's, RPG's, etc. - wars would end within 2 minutes.

As for jobs - they seem to be very plentiful ....... for now. I worry what AI's effects will have on jobs in the next 3 to 20 years. The CEO's of Nvidia, AMD, and other AI / chip companies say plainly and outwardly that AI will eliminate millions of jobs. Even the "safe" careers of code writers / programmers are on the chopping block. The first jobs to go will be the higher-paying ones - gotta eliminate payroll - improve the next quarterly report. The CEO's say AI products will be able to write programs / codes faster and more accurately than humans. Lots of college debt maybe not going to pay off - sadly. I watched the CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, answer this way when he was asked what are the best careers / jobs once AI kicks in ........ his first answer was, "Farming." Food production. Machines / automated programs replace people in big numbers, so we revert to the Middle Ages and grow our own food to survive??? Without good-paying jobs, that allow disposable income ....... how many less people to buy the goods and services??? If the "insiders" are saying these things .... do we just laugh it off??

I saw on a "tech-y" TV program just days ago, a machine that's powered by AI that lays bricks. An automated AI-powered buggy delivered mortar to the mechanical "brick-layer." Seems even building trades are at risk when I watched that. The machine did a great job too. Where will this end??? There are already automated welding machines - been on big construction sites where they had 'em welding - pipes and even huge bridge beams. One guy can set up several auto-welders - lots of human welders out of jobs.

I hope no one on here is replaced by AI / automation, or has family members that will be ------ regardless of political affiliations. Don't want anyone to hurt economically.

Have a good day gentlemen.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Apparently analysis has shown the production of and EV vs a gas powered car requires 40% labor... that means union work force reduction. The Gov't is also subsiding purchases of EV's by price cuts $7k - $10k. EV's costs are prohibitive to many buyers as they can't afford a $80k-$90k car. Add in limited battery time and difficulties accessing charge stations. The green climate crazies are definitely pushing who are trying force this agenda, and never think through the consequences.

Now add the Chinese cheapo EV's will further stress americam EV mftrs because they are losing money on every sale they make. Because Biden has been bought by the Chinese, he has a real problem, you can't play both sides of the fence.

My post was tongue in cheek but why aren’t the climate commies protesting the administrations tariffs on one of the key cogs to climate change? Surely $12k ev’s in the largest vehicle market in the world is a net positive on the environment. Or is all this just a front for government control….

 

[jsasker007]

My post was tongue in cheek but why aren’t the climate commies protesting the administrations tariffs on one of the key cogs to climate change? Surely $12 ev’s in the largest vehicle market ont he world is a net positive on the environment. Or is all this just a front for government control….

I try to look at the markets as they react to the president and the agenda at hand during their term/terms. One president will push certain things for their term and those stocks usually will do a lot better because of the push by government and the media coverage planting the seed in a persons mind. The markets have not been acting normally for the past few years. Seems that it's become a popularity contest and who ever gets positive reviews is who goes up in share price not based on facts or numbers or future projections of the companies like it should be. Lately it's guessing what the other investors are going to promote is what drives stocks prices higher. I'm about ready to just add the letters AI behind my company name so we can have a killer year financially. Smoke and mirrors. Look at POT---It was always a bad thing until the government could become the dealer, now it's ok and promoted.

 

[Tree Spud]

My post was tongue in cheek but why aren’t the climate commies protesting the administrations tariffs on one of the key cogs to climate change? Surely $12 ev’s in the largest vehicle market ont he world is a net positive on the environment. Or is all this just a front for government control….

Well considering they are trying to replace gas powered item like stoves, grills, law tools/mowers, furnaces & AC, cars, trucks both gas & diesel, etc,, when our elec power grid cannot support this demand. They banning gas cars in the 2030's and shutting US oil production leases for conventional onshore & offshore, fracking, and the keystone pipeline, One might say that a reasonable person would see this as Gov't control of buyers choices, what a business can and cannot sell, and supply chain manipulation.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Couple quotes from a Forbes article…. I thought it was interesting.

===Presidents get a lot of credit and blame over rising and falling gasoline prices. In reality, there’s not a lot a president can do to impact gasoline prices in the short term. Longer term, a president can pass policies that impact supply and demand in such a way that they do impact gasoline prices. But in the short term, a president has relatively few handles for influencing gasoline prices.===

===This graphic shows the data, but it needs context. There are many stories that could be spun from a superficial reading of the data, but many of them would be wrong. For example, President Bush saw a huge rise in gasoline prices when he was in office. It would certainly be easy to cast blame on him for this, but President Bush was very pro-oil and gas development.===

Average Gasoline Prices Under The Past Four Presidents

Gasoline prices have been especially volatile over the past 20 years. Here is how prices evolved during each of the past four presidencies.

www.forbes.com

But then there’s this: Biden has been discouraging Ukraine from hitting Russian refinery and energy facilities. Russia is financing their war and wartime economy with energy sales. (Interesting fact: their new Defense Minister has never been in the military. He’s an economist.) If Russia can’t sell oil and gas, they can’t pay for a war. Remember, Russia is basically a gas station posing as a country. So back to Biden. He is doing this because it is an election year and gas prices matter. I am a believer in “doing the right thing”. The right thing to do is make Russian gas and oil facilities unusable. The right thing to do is to tell the Indian government to quit buying Russian oil and gas. Both result in higher gas prices for Americans. As I understand it, Biden is in this case affecting the price of gas. Or is at least trying to. I think it’s gutless and it enables our enemies.

Now that I said that, I’m going to refer back to the bold above- it needs context. I probably don’t have enough context to know why we do what we do. I doubt any of it is as simple as “We do this and that happens.” Nothing is simple.

An American president can tell India or any other country "don't do this", or "we'd like you to do that" - but they don't have to obey. And in many cases they don't, so to not look like a puppet to their own people. How many times over our history have U.S. presidents given "political cover" to foreign leaders, making those leaders look independent of U.S. pressure, possibly applied from behind the scenes?? Diplomacy is about many things, and putting a pleasing face on an issue involving several countries is a delicate balancing act for any president.

I have no idea of what goes on behind the scenes in any administration, concerning deals / pressures / threats / agreements, etc. I'm sure for national security reasons, and political ones - either U.S. politics reasons, or global politics reasons - we aren't let in on every little thing. It's that way in every administration, R & D both. Sometimes it's best not to blab every detail out to the whole world. I lose no sleep over that sort of thing.

The world oil markets are always in flux / turmoil, because the leaders of a number of countries have huge ego's and they realize they have leverage in world markets. According to numerous economic and investment sources (one of which is Forbes), the U.S. is producing more oil & gas than it ever has - ever. Oil producers aren't going to stockpile and save it all for U.S. consumption ........ they want to sell it and make profit today - not in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years. Despite the fact that we produce more oil & natural gas than ever before, we sell our resources on the world market and still import oil. Doesn't make sense, does it? I won't try to figure out how & why world oil markets act as they do. Things that would seem - to me - to make sense from our U.S viewpoint ........ don't happen. So I agree with your last sentences above. Nothing is as simple as we'd like it to be.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Just read an article from Forbes. It said that the latest economic data released this morning, showed that core inflation has hit its lowest point in 3 years in April. It quoted a gentleman by the name of Eugenio Aleman, Chief Economist for Raymond James investment managers as saying, " ...... this is a breath of fresh air." Lowering inflation ups the probability of rates coming down, and a subsequent rise in stocks.

This was welcome news for the economic and investment fronts. I'm sure more data will be forthcoming, but the news was upbeat today.

 

[jsasker007]

Election year= expect to hear 10x the bull shit you normally would from any "news" sources. jmho

 

[Jerry-B-WI]

Election year= expect to hear 10x the bull shit you normally would from any "news" sources. jmho

Make sure you include all the election candidates in that statement!

 

[H20fwler]

So far the Tech stocks are still strong but I’m starting to get skittish on them.
Even with it being an election year with the economy the way it is and inflation looking almost out of control the left will have a tough time keeping the market propped up.
I think it’s turning into a bubble, might be time for a duck and cover plan.

 

[jsasker007]

We could recover our debt and then some if they would just start a pay per view and have a hunger games with our politicians. Betting odds in Vegas on how long Jerry Nadler will last? Nancy Pelosi living off of the land. Let them fight and eliminate each other with nothing more than what the landscape provides. I would pay a lot of money to watch that. I think almost everyone would. Some place with dangerous predators would be a huge plus. They've earned it in my opinion.

 

[jsasker007]

Anyone else been playing the GME screw the shorts game? I was in the last round a few years ago and just got into this one. GME doesn't really make any sense as a long term investment but when the people get together then the people have the power. That is what's driving GME up beyond anything that makes sense. Not sure how long it will last but it is entertaining and profitable if you time it right. If people would stand together as work as a team we could control sooo many things.